Chifley Research Centre

Chifley Research Centre
Thursday, 27 November 2008

Sharyn Lymer: Population ageing, health status and health outlays

Population ageing, health status and health outlays: Assessing impacts and policy options during the next 40 years.

INITIAL PhD SEMINAR – Thursday 27th November

Population ageing, health status and health outlays: Assessing impacts and policy options during the next 40 years.

Presented by Sharyn Lymer

PhD candidate at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra

The ageing of the population in Australia, due to decreased fertility and increased longevity, is placing increased pressure on government budgets. This fiscal pressure will be heightened by the large cohort of baby boomers reaching older ages from 2011. A key concern is the high level of public expenditure on older Australians, in the areas of social security, health and aged care. In Australia, the development of APPSIM, a dynamic microsimulation model, has been funded by the Australian Research Council and 12 government departments to develop a sophisticated policy decision making tool to look at the effects of ageing over the next 40 years.

This seminar will present an outline of proposed research on the effects of ageing and various other factors, including health status and presence of obesity on the use and cost of health care services in Australia over the next 40 years. The research will include the development of modelling infrastructure to assess the distributional impact of changes in health status and health policy through the building of a health module within the dynamic microsimulation model, APPSIM. This model will allow the investigation of how changing health status, either compression or expansion of morbidity, of the ageing Australian population affects health expenditure, both by the government and the individual. In addition, the potential impact of increasing obesity rates on population health status, health service utilisation and the associated effects to health expenditure over time will be explored through the model.

Sharyn Lymer is a PhD candidate at the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra, supervised by Prof. Ann Harding and Prof. Laurie Brown.

Date: Thursday 27th November

Time: 10:30 – 11:30 am

Venue: Demonstration Room

Ground Floor

170 Haydon Drive, Bruce, ACT 2617



Tel: (02) 6201 2780

About Chifley Research Centre:

The Chifley Research Centre is the Labor Party’s official think tank, committed to the advancement of public policy debate and progressive thinking in Australia.